Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
🔻 IMPORTANT - Slow Horses
▪️ Slow Horses - a total of four seasons since 2022 - is a British spy thriller TV series based on the thirteen novels by British author Mick Herron, Slough House (novel series) distributed by Apple TV+. I recommend this TV series as two great masterpieces of spy fiction along with 007 (James Bond is a fictional character created by British author Ian Fleming in 1953). The former is about MI5, the latter about MI6. Both legendary intelligence agencies are also involved in Hong Kong affairs. The story is about an unofficial MI5 department headed by Jackson Lamb, the head of Slough House, who assists Diana Taverner, the Deputy Director General of MI5 and head of operations, and is called the "Second Desk" to deal with issues that are difficult to tackle in the official line of duty. Although 007 belongs to the Cold War era, Slow Horses belongs to the era of virtual feudalism, transnational actors, the so-called "intermestic" period. Theoretically, transnational actors are seen as substate or non-state actors, but the reality as known as international terrorism, most transnational actors are state actors in disguise. From a public perspective, Slough House is also such a non-state actor. My point here is that in season 4, the main antagonist, ex-CIA agent turned mercenary, Frank Harkness, pretends to be a drainage worker and enters the MI5 archivist's living unit to get information, he cites the exact same line, "a water leak," an excuse used by Matthew Trickett, 37, an immigration officer and director of another security firm called MTR Consultancy, which specializes in security, surveillance and private investigations, who served as a British Royal Marine between February 2007 and March 2013 when he broke into a living unit of one of the "political refugee" Hong Gongers in the UK. People still remember the 2024 Hong Kong Trade Office spy case. However, it turned out that these spies were privately exploited as debt collectors for mainlanders' personal disputes. Moreover, the harsher result is that even this level of scandal, corruption and shameful disaster is too embarrassing for the British side to make it into the TV episodes. Reality doesn't fit the fictional form, which must maintain a certain uniformity of tone, style, dignity, and material. In other words, this is where a line is rationally drawn between what should be made into fiction and the incompatible dynamic reality. If the British had made the whole context into the TV series, it could have exploded the whole tone and unification of the spy thriller, since Frank Harkness is a typical fictional antagonist on demand in this genre. This micro detail is at the heart of Slow Horses. And why is that? It makes the difference between Slow Horses and Hong Kong Snails. It also reveals that the spies of the Hong Kong side, especially Matthew Trickett, became cannon fodder, and to this day, no official has taken responsibility for this scandal. The HKSAR government's "zero accountability", or "legitimate corruption", is one of Hong Kong's major social problems in the eyes of its citizens. Therefore, these fake Hong Kong movies and inferior TV series are advertisements of the ruling class to cover up their wrongdoings and true nature with irresponsible illusions.
Note: Slough is a town in Berkshire, England.
References:
▪️ CK Hutchison's treacherous deal is a victory of Trump 2.0: The Panama Port deal is a turning point of the end of the greedy Hong Kong oligarchy and became part of the Hong Kong reform initiated by the CCP/CGPRC. In general, both Western and local Hong Kong "media" support CK Hutchison more than the CCP obviously. This can also be seen in the reactions of both Western and local Hong Kong 'media' to the death of one of the real estate oligarchs, Lee Shau-kee (February 20, 1928 - March 17, 2025), they portrayed him as a 'saint' in contrast to the death of ex-state leader Jiang Zemin (August 17, 1926 - November 30, 2022). The level of "advertising" to commemorate the oligarch shows us how the so-called "pro-establishment" and "opposition" camps are in the grip of both CK Hutchison and Henderson Land Development, not in the grip of the CCP. Thus, the following interesting recent incidents prevailed:
(1) The Panama port deal proved that "one country, two systems" secured the independence of the local capitalists, including the Hong Kong oligarchy. They are not in the grip of the CCP. This is proof of the continued existence of 1C2S.
(2) News reports such as "Explainer: What levers do China and Hong Kong have over CK Hutchison's port deal?" by Reuters is to help CK Hutchison by speculation that is undesirable for them to prevent the results. A tactic of "news" advertising agencies in general. For Hong Kong, John Lee Ka-chiu is just a straw man who didn't even criticize CK Hutchison on March 18, 2025. Why does the HKSARG not join the CCP on this issue? It's simply because the million-dollar snail, HKSARG, is just a real estate management company for the ruling oligarchs. So, they didn't follow the CCP to denounce the betrayal.
(3) CK Hutchison is the number one company registered in Hong Kong. And Li Ka-shing (1928-) is the No. 1 capitalist, the richest capitalist, the crystallization of greedy Hong Kong capitalism. Even Li Ka-shing is again proved to be politically duplicitous, all other smaller capitalists in this city are more treacherous and unreliable. This is the scandal after 2019, another blow to Hong Kong's ruling class, which is only responsible for itself. In November 2019, Reuters reported under the title How Hong Kong's biggest tycoon went from friend of China to punching bag:
Instead of feting the 91-year-old businessman, Beijing has harangued him for failing to deliver in the rebellious city. When the Party was looking for a chorus of influential voices to counter the protests that began this summer, Li offered only even-handed pleas for restraint. In an online video of comments he made at a monastery, Li called for “humanity” when dealing with young protesters. The response was brutal. The Party’s central legal affairs commission in Beijing publicly accused Li of “harboring criminality” and “watching Hong Kong slip into the abyss.” A pro-Beijing trade union leader in Hong Kong posted a Facebook item mocking him as the “king of cockroaches” with an image that pasted Li’s head atop a picture of a fat insect.
(4) The Anti-Monopoly Law must be extended to both Hong Kong and Macau to bring the local oligarchs under state control. This Panama deal incident proved that the HKSARG slugs are not the effective rulers of this city, but Li Ka-shing is the de facto ruler. Therefore, the CPC/NPCSC must amend the Basic Law to delete Article 5 (The socialist system and policies shall not be practiced in the HKSAR, and the previous capitalist system and way of life shall remain unchanged for 50 years) and Article 22 (No department of the Central People's Government and no province, autonomous region or municipality directly under the Central Government shall interfere in the affairs which the HKSAR administers on its own in accordance with this law) to establish the clear accountability between Hong Kong and the mainland.
(5) No one mentions it, but I must mention that the 1C2Ss can't ensure the separation of responsibilities between the HKSARG and the CGPRC as proved. The grievances caused by the incompetent and corrupt HKSARG misdeeds will automatically be directed against the CCP and the whole of China. From another point of view, the 1C2Ss can't separate the responsibility of governance between the two regions ruled by two rulers. Snails, Cantonese tribes are swindlers. Hong Kong reform must be initiated by the CCP, otherwise no one else will do it in this sinful city.
References:
▪️ Two Sessions 2025，the annual plenary sessions of the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, both of which are usually held at the Great Hall of the People in Xicheng, Beijing, on the same dates every March: Ding Xuexiang (1962-) urged Hong Kong to follow the new state policy, new quality productive forces; Li Qiang's government work paper is well written to further explain in detail how the state organizes the diversified new productive forces into unification. This can only be done through the initiative of the central power. Remember that although Hong Kong ranks first in "telecommunications market maturity" (CIA, 2022), it is only in the aspect of consumption, as Hong Kong lags far behind the high-tech city of Shenzhen. This is one of the surprising asymmetries of this urban jungle.
References:
▪️ The 2025-2026 Budget: As predicted, the Slugs sacrificed the poor to keep their 'social welfare and irrationally high salaries' intact. As we know, the slugs enjoy both exclusive social welfare programs for the "public servants" and now discounted social welfare programs for the "non-public servants". Moreover, even under the unilateral salary freeze, there are still various loopholes to allow the snails to increase salaries through "performance review" and "creation of new departments and titles". The HKSAR government not only doesn't come up with a policy to solve the growing deficits but has even reduced its commitment to the new national policy. There are tricks to deceive the public. (1) Those government funds are put outside the public property and the recovery of the fund into the budget is defined as income; (2) the crony capitalist relations between the government funds and the particular industries are unchanged with no transparency; (3) the "end of land financing" is just a speculation that on the surface level there is still no difference between intentionally limited land supply and ‘weak demand’ in land supply. It seems that the HKSARG is trying to maintain the super-high property prices; (4) the actual budget left is about HKD 290 billion, down from HKD 1170 billion before 2020 at the annual deficit rate of 6% of GDP as opposed to the mainland's 4%; (5) the serious problem is not the deficit but the terrible spending by the snails.
Finally, Milton Freidman's words best fit the above issue:
1. …the liberal pundits are wrong in a more fundamental way. The problem is not that government is spending too little but that it is spending too much. (p.7)
2. Again, let me emphasize, the problem is not that bureaucrats are bad people. The problem, as the Marxists would say, is with the system, not with the people. The self-interest of people in government leads them to behave in a way that is against the self-interest of the rest of us. You remember Adam Smith’s famous law of the invisible hand: People who intend only to seek their own benefit are “led by an invisible hand to serve a public interest which was no part of” their intention. I say that there is a reverse invisible hand: People who intend to serve only the public interest are led by an invisible hand to serve private interests which was no part of their intention. (Ibid.)
NOTE: This is a must read for the Hong Kong 'opposition'.
3. I believe our present predicament exists because we have gradually developed governmental institutions in which the people effectively have no voice. (Ibid.)
4. Payne added, “Overwhelmingly, Congress’s views on spending programs are shaped by government officials themselves.” (Ibid.)
5. I do not believe the debt overhang is the real problem. I believe the real problem is government spending. Government debt is a problem in the long run. Obviously, if the government continues to run deficits for a long period of time, it will sooner or later have to monetize them. So, I do not deny that is a real problem. However, it is a mistake to concentrate on the debt as such instead of concentrating on why the debt was created, which is by excessive government spending. What is called a deficit is a form of taxation. It is a very bad form of taxation, but it is a form of taxation. However, it does have some good features. The deficit is the only thing that is keeping spending from going up still faster. Moreover, I do not know of any component of government expenditures that does less harm than the payment of interest. If interest rates tomorrow were zero so that government did not have to pay any interest, what will happen to the money it saved? Do you think it would reduce the deficit? You are kidding yourself. (P.10)
Note: the HKSARG has no right to print HKD as the three banks, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, and Bank of China have the right to print HKD but not USD. The government debt in effect is equal with taxation on the social number of deposits in the city. As a result, resources originally purchasable – allocable - with the people’s deposits will be reduced. It inevitably moves toward inflation. This is a zero-sum game.
References:
b. 紫荊週報第102期
c. Friedman, Milton. Why Government is the Problem.* Essays in Public Policy, no. 39. Stanford, California: Hoover Institution Press, 1993.
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