Hong Kong Intelligence Report #153 The Strategic Importance is not Hong Kong but rather Central Asia
- Ryota Nakanishi
- 2 days ago
- 7 min read
Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
🔻 IMPORTANT - Central Asia
▪️ This brief analysis is about Xia Baolong's speech at the opening ceremony of the 2025 National Security Education Day (4/15/2025) in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the ongoing tariff war with the US.
(1) Xia Baolong's position as the Party Apparatus of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has led to the explicit designation of the United States as a state adversary. Furthermore, all social unrest in the past has been attributed to the US, while disregarding the interests of local vested interests. ‘During the 2014 "Occupy Central" movement, the 2016 Mong Kok Riot, and the 2019 amendment bill turbulence, calls for "Hong Kong independence" escalated, "black-clad violence" increased, and widespread acts of destruction posed a serious threat to national security. Hong Kong suffered significant damage, becoming unrecognizable and bearing the scars of these events.’ This depiction of historical events is not only inaccurate, but also serves as a form of propaganda that portrays the situation as a total war. The notion of an external force alone, without any acknowledgment of internal factors, is a simplistic and inaccurate representation of the complexities of the situation. Moreover, a critical observation is necessary to define the most influential foreign political entity in Hong Kong: ‘despite Hong Kong constituting the primary source of the U.S. trade surplus, the United States imposed substantial tariffs on it. This practice can be regarded as a manifestation of audacious and unabashed economic dominance. This action underscores the United States' aversion to Hong Kong's economic flourishing and political stability. The United States is regarded as the primary "sinister manipulator" that seeks to subvert Hong Kong's human rights, freedom, the rule of law, prosperity, and stability. The underlying motivation of the United States is not the imposition of tariffs; rather, it is a strategic threat to the fundamental survival of Hong Kong.’ The Hong Kong citizen, from the perspective of the proletariat, has been presented with a fatal misjudgment in regard to the designation of the United States as an adversary. The city, a freeport, has been identified as a '1C2S' entity, which is susceptible to political upheaval and is willing to sacrifice the interests of the economically disadvantaged to maintain the interests of private bankers and aristocratic speculators. This city, a fenced enclave in China, is designed to serve globalists at the cost of the proletariat. It is notable that the vast majority of the city, the proletariat, is not mentioned. Instead, the city is founded on the interests of capitalists rather than workers. This apparent inversion of values and priorities is a salient point of concern. The speech also designated capitalists as patriotic players. This elitist perspective is characterized by its weakness and lack of grassroots support, in contrast to the substantial and robust grassroots support that Trump 2.0 enjoys. The HKSARG, by contrast, lacks substantial popular support from citizens. A juxtaposition between Hong Kong and the US is evident even in the CCP speech. The question that remains unanswered is why the CCP and HKSARG lack grassroots support in Hong Kong. It is imperative to recognize that any form of retribution against the United States by this city is not only misguided but also illogical and superfluous. The citizens of Hong Kong hold the United States and President Trump in high regard.
(2) Xia Baolong = PCG / CCP issued a warning to the Hong Kong oligarchy, particularly CK Hutcheson and Li Ka-shing, regarding the Panama Port scandal. The warning indicated that strategic properties controlled by the oligarchs around the world could be subject to significant losses during a period of national crisis. This has been strategically exploited by the Hong Kong oligarchy to inflict harm upon the CCP and China during a pivotal moment. This scenario represents the most significant implementation of the lam chau doctrine to date. The CCP's realization of this fact is noteworthy. This can be regarded as a vulnerability within the '1C2S' framework, particularly in light of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region's (HKSARG) apparent lack of opposition to Li Ka-shing's substantial sales of ports to the United States. Xia Baolong vehemently denounced such actions. This is in the national interest of China objectively: ‘In the face of significant moral and ethical dilemmas, the Chinese people have demonstrated a profound sense of integrity and moral fortitude by aligning with the principles of the motherland and choosing the side of history that is right. Those who betray national interests and align with adversaries during critical moments will face severe consequences, both from Hong Kong compatriots and the broader Chinese population. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to adverse historical repercussions. It is imperative to maintain clarity and discernment in the face of issues pertaining to grand righteousness and integrity.’
(3) The rhetoric employed by the BBC stands in stark contrast to that of Xia Baolong, representing the Communist Party. ‘The question of whether Hong Kong, as an independent customs territory, should adopt China's countermeasures is a salient one. This inquiry delves into the potential ramifications on Hong Kong's status as a "free port," particularly concerning its image and economic well-being. The inquiry further delves into the potential ramifications of escalating tariffs on Hong Kong's economy. In response, some academics have communicated to BBC China that, while Hong Kong, in its capacity as a free port, possesses the theoretical capacity to implement countermeasures against these tariffs, in practice, these measures are deemed ineffective, ultimately leading to self-inflicted harm.’ In essence, Mainland China continues to depend on Hong Kong for the importation of goods without the imposition of trade tariffs, particularly those goods that are repackaged as 'MADE IN HONG KONG.' Consequently, there remains a possibility for the importation of goods from third countries where the United States has not yet imposed 'trade war' tariffs. Consequently, President Trump's 2.0 tariffs, imposed on Hong Kong, are equivalent to 245%. According to a document released on Tuesday, April 15, the White House stated that China now faces tariffs of up to 245% on imports to the United States due to its "retaliatory actions." However, a notable aspect that has not been widely disseminated by Hong Kong media outlets pertains to the strategic rationale underpinning this tariff war. According to the Wall Street Journal, Washington is endeavoring to persuade more than 70 countries to restrict their commercial relations with China in exchange for a reduction in tariffs. This initiative is of paramount importance in safeguarding U.S. interests. Absent this requirement, the political effects of the accumulating tariffs will be nullified structurally. This also indicates that not only are the bilateral tariffs anti-China, but they are also multinationally designed.
(4) However, the most salient point is that Hong Kong does not function as the primary protagonist in this context. Despite the trade surplus with Hong Kong, the United States does not prioritize Hong Kong as a significant economic partner. The most salient vulnerability in China's political landscape pertains to its heavy reliance on importing oil, gas, and coal, which underscores the nation's energy security challenges. A disruption in these energy imports could potentially lead to economic stagnation in China. This issue, however, is not a salient concern for Hong Kong, as its imports primarily consist of electronics and do not include significant energy products bound for the mainland. Moreover, Hong Kong's perceived influence is often overstated, as evidenced by the misleading magnitude of events. The primary theater of conflict is located in Central Asia and Eastern Europe, rather than in Hong Kong or Macau, China's two historical free trade zones. The primary energy resources imported by China are primarily directed towards the East Coast, while Central Asia functions as the predominant hub for gas imports. It is responsible for 43% of China's gas imports, 13% of its total gas imports, and 7.7% of its total gas consumption. Consequently, the most effective strategic approach for the United States would be to disrupt or prevent China's energy imports. This approach is likely more cost-effective than engaging with the con artists of Hong Kong's Cantonese tribal clans. A thorough comprehension of events in Central Asia and Eastern Europe is only possible by adhering to this principle. Gas is imported from Turkmenistan via Kazakhstan and Dzungarian Alatau to China. The strategic importance of this route is twofold, both politically and economically, as it provides access to China's western borders. At present, Kazakhstan remains encircled by countries that are hostile to the United States. Consequently, the United States has endeavored to establish a Caspian Sea route to China's western borders, with the aim of imposing an economic blockade. In this context, Chechnya emerged as the primary target. The establishment of the Caucasus Emirate (2007-2016) was initially impeded by Russia while it suppressed Chechnya's rebellion. Secondly, an attempt was made to militarize Georgia. However, the Russo-Georgian War resulted in a Russian victory. The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War (2022-) is also rooted in these historical developments. Even Kazakhstan's anti-government demonstrations and coup attempt, which were thwarted by CSTO Russian troops in 2022, can be understood in this context. Consequently, China's strategic interests align with Russia's military endeavors, a fact that is evident to the United States.
In conclusion, Hong Kong's political and economic weight is negligible in comparison to East Turkestan's strategic importance. The media's discourse obscures this reality.
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